A comparison of methods for forecasting value at risk and expected shortfall of cryptocurrencies

Several procedures to forecast daily risk measures in cryptocurrency markets have been recently implemented in the literature. Among them, long‐memory processes, procedures taking into account the presence of extreme observations, procedures that include more than a single regime, and quantile regression‐based models have performed substantially better than standard methods in terms of forecasting risk measures. Those procedures are revisited in this paper, and their value at risk and expected shortfall forecasting performance are evaluated using recent Bitcoin and Ethereum data that include periods of turbulence due to the COVID‐19 pandemic, the third halving of Bitcoin, and the Lexia class action. Additionally, in order to mitigate the influence of model misspecification and enhance the forecasting performance obtained by individual models, we evaluate the use of several forecast combining strategies. Our results, based on a comprehensive backtesting exercise, reveal that, for Bitcoin, there is no single procedure outperforming all other models, but for Ethereum, there is evidence showing that the GAS model is a suitable alternative for forecasting both risk measures. We found that the combining methods were not able to outperform the better of the individual models.

Face Recognition Attendance System

The conventional procedure used in all of India's major regions is attendance monitoring on paper with pens. Although the final data is computerized, it takes a long time to get from a classroom to a database. The effectiveness of the classes is directly impacted by the number of absences. The attendance takes up almost half of the lecture's allotted time. The alternative method that is being used involves using fingerprints, but even this approach is ineffective since it takes so long. Due to the illnesses (COVID-19) spreading over the world, however, the situation as it stands right now does not make this the best course of action. Therefore, it will be advisable to develop a contactless and more efficient. © 2023 IEEE.

Rural Remote Learning in Manitoba During COVID-19: Opportunities and Challenges of Action Research

In September of 2020, seven school divisions in Western Manitoba developed a remote learning program to support medically fragile families whose children could not return to classrooms. The coalition of these school divisions, known as the Westman Consortia Partnership (WCP), needed to investigate what beliefs, practices, and strategies were critical to this new rural remote learning program, hence the collaboration with researchers to answer that question. From action research perspectives, this paper unpacks opportunities and challenges researchers faced in pre-, peri-, and post- research contexts during the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper explores action research aspects that were both followed and disrupted given the social, cultural, and historical context of the participants in the study.

Sojourning Educators at International Schools Overseas and the Covid-19 Pandemic

The Covid-19 pandemic has jolted educational organizations and their stakeholders. Mobility between countries is a requisite feature at international schools, with students and educators shifting between home, host, and intermediary countries. Stakeholders are diverse in international schools, representing transcultural interests, giving rise to complex needs and considerations for school leadership. This article explores a subset of data from a study on educator acculturation in international schools that unpacks the effects of, and responses to, the pandemic by sojourning educators at international schools in Southeast and East Asia. Effects on students were not examined. Findings include adaptive responses, mobility barriers and role/school precarity, spikes in acculturative stress, and creative problem-solving. These effects have generated substantial leadership enigmas. Implications include an urgent need to activate adaptive leadership practices, including contingency planning and action research projects aiming at experiential learning from different stakeholder groups in international schools.

No jab, no international travel? Linking TRA, mass media, motivation, and experience

Despite mixed emotions about COVID-19 vaccination as a precondition for international travel, COVID-19 vaccination is being advocated as one of the instruments that could facilitate safe free movement during the COVID-19 pandemic. Accordingly, the purpose of the present research is to distinguish the underlying mechanisms that could predict individuals' intentions to take the COVID-19 vaccine as a precondition for international travel. The conceptual framework was built on the extended theory of reasoned action (TRA), which incorporates mass media coverage, travel motivations, and previous travel experience. An online purposive sampling technique was utilized in this study, and 1188 responses were collected. Subsequently, structural equation modeling was utilized to test the proposed model. The originality of the present study lies with unraveling the mechanisms that affect the intention to take the COVID-19 vaccine as a precondition for international travel. In addition, the discussions are presented in subsequent sections of the paper.

Psychological considerations when attending for mammography screening

The pandemic led to a pause in routine breast screening in the UK, with up to one million not being offered appointments (Breast Cancer Now, Almost one million women in UK miss vital breast screening due to COVID-19, 2022). However, according to a Nuffield report, even before this, breast cancer screening in the UK had yet to reach its 'optimal performance standard of 80%' (Nuffield, Cancer screening-quality watch, 2022). In usual times, this has meant that with screening rates in excess of 70%, over two million women have been screened annually in the UK. However, breast cancer is also the most common cancer in women in the UK (Office for National Statistics, Cancer registration statistics, 2017), with 85% survival 5 years after diagnosis (Office for National Statistics, Cancer survival in England - adults diagnosed 2019) and it remains clear that screening can help reduce breast cancer mortality (Office for National Statistics, Cancer registration statistics, 2017). So why would 25% or more fail to accept an invitation for a routine mammogram which may ultimately help save their lives? This chapter considers a range of psychological factors relevant to understanding this phenomenon and hopefully bring about a positive change. © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2015, 2022. All rights reserved.

Confinement with No Rights. Perceptions of Inmates' Relatives Regarding Measures for COVID-19 Control Implemented in Mexican Prisons

Based on a participatory study design, this article describes how a group of family members of people deprived of liberty (PDL) experienced the COVID-19 control measures implemented in Mexico's prisons. We conducted 28 in-depth interviews and analyzed them using ATLAS.ti. We found that the measures implemented in Mexican prisons to avoid the spread of COVID-19 focused mainly on suspension of visitation and PDL confinement. The isolation imposed on PDL impacted their living conditions, making them more vulnerable to contracting COVID-19 due to lack of access to essential services, food, and hygiene supplies. Visit restrictions and PDL isolation also impacted PDL relatives' health and socioeconomic conditions. Our findings indicate that the consequences of COVID-19 control actions in Mexican prisons differ according to the gender and jurisdiction of PDL. Women in federal prisons were more isolated, while those in local ones were more deprived of basic supplies. Imprisoned women's isolation has especially severe effects on the mental and physical health of their elderly parents and children. The results show how the measures adopted to control COVID-19 outbreaks in Mexican prisons have exacerbated the preexisting systemic violence experienced by PDL and their families and how they have failed to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in these settings. These findings provide support for the health-informed penal reform of Mexican prisons.

Moral Judgments Impact Perceived Risks From COVID-19 Exposure

The COVID-19 pandemic created enormously difficult decisions for individuals trying to navigate both the risks of the pandemic and the demands of everyday life. Good decision making in such scenarios can have life and death consequences. For this reason, it is important to understand what drives risk assessments during a pandemic, and to investigate the ways that these assessments might deviate from ideal risk assessments. In a preregistered online study of U.S. residents (N = 841) using two blocks of vignettes about potential COVID exposure scenarios, we investigated the effects of moral judgment, importance, and intentionality on COVID infection risk assessments. Results demonstrate that risk judgments are sensitive to factors unrelated to the objective risks of infection. Specifically, activities that are morally justified are perceived as safer while those that might subject people to blame or culpability, are seen as riskier, even when holding objective risk fixed. Similarly, unintentional COVID exposures are judged as safer than intentional COVID exposures. While the effect sizes are small, these findings may have implications for public health and risk communications, particularly if public health officials are themselves subject to these biases.

Creating a new sovereign debt reconstruction mechanism: why incentives, risk sharing, and CACs will all matter

This paper argues that the Covid recession, and aggressive monetary tightening in the US accompanying the post-Covid recovery, are likely to cause a sovereign debt overhang in emerging market economies—i.e. debt which is unlikely to be fully repaid. A sovereign debt reconstruction mechanism (SDRM) seems necessary to avoid widespread disorderly debt write-downs. We discuss a range of procedures that are available, building upon Anne Krueger's proposal for an SDRM in 2002 (Krueger, 2002a,b). At that time Krugman (1988) had already argued that any SDRM should incentivize debtors so that they put in effort to clear their debts (a Krugman contract). Menzies (2004) went further than this to show that these effects should be further sharpened, creating what he called ‘hyper-incentive effects' (a Menzies contract). The International Monetary Fund has argued that risk-sharing between debtors and creditors will also be important (IMF, 2020). But we show that risk-sharing will—in general—pull in the opposite direction to incentive effects, and we doubt the extent to which the IMF has recognized this trade-off. Finally, we argue that collective action clauses (CACs) increase the probability of achieving any agreement, whatever it might be. They will help avoid the alternative of disorderly debt write-downs, outcomes which will deliver neither incentive effects nor risk-sharing. © The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press.

Precarious Bodies in Precarious Times: Herstorical Transcorporeality in Emma Donoghue's The Pull of the Stars

This article draws on the intersection of the metahistorical, corporeal and material turn in contemporary cultural theory, with a focus on Emma Donoghue's novel The Pull of the Stars (2020), incidentally written to commemorate a centenary of the Spanish flu in Britain, and suddenly appearing prophetic of the COVID-19 situation in 2020-2021, with unintentional, but poignant parallels. The methodological framework used for the article is transmodern metahistory, as well as new materialism, with its important concepts of transcorporeality (Alaimo) and intra-action (Barad). The article examines women's (bodily) lives in 1918 Dublin as depicted in the novel, against the tempestuous political and military historical context furnishing the background for the material, temporal and discursive entanglements and shared vulnerabilities, which are the centre of the narrative. It also touches upon topical issues and processes characterizing the present-day world, such as the global COVID-19 pandemic, #MeToo and BLM movements, social injustice and intersectional feminism, as well as silenced traumatic historical phenomena, such as the cruelty and abuse of Irish and Canadian residential institutions, and the larger issue of livable lives-a crucial topic for women writers today.

Beyond Utterances: Embodied Creativity and Compliance in Dance and Dementia

Practices of creativity and compliance intersect in interaction when directing local dances remotely for people living with dementia and their carers in institutional settings. This ethnomethodological study focused on how artistic mechanisms are understood and structured by participants in response to on-screen instruction. Video data were collected from two long-term care facilities in Canada and Finland in a pilot study of a dance program that extended internationally from Canada to Finland at the onset of COVID-19. Fourteen hours of video data were analyzed using multimodal conversation analysis of initiation–response sequences. In this paper, we identify how creative instructed actions are produced in compliance with multimodal directives in interaction when mediated by technology and facilitated by copresent facilitators. We provide examples of how participants' variably compliant responses in relation to dance instruction, from following a lead to coordinating with others, produce different creative actions from embellishing to improvising. Our findings suggest that cocreativity may be realized at intersections of compliance and creativity toward reciprocity. This research contributes to interdisciplinary discussions about the potential of arts-based practices in social inclusion, health, and well-being by studying how dance instruction is understood and realized remotely and in copresence in embodied instructed action and interaction. © 2023 by the authors.

Trace Elements Zinc and Selenium: Their Significance in the Conditions of the Covid-19 Pandemic

Within the conditions of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, when many questions regarding prevention and treatment strategies remain unsolved and the search for the best antiviral agents is underway, attention should be paid to the role of trace elements zinc and selenium in increasing the body's resistance to viral infections and their direct antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2. Experimental data show that trace elements zinc and selenium not only actthrough regulating the immune response at all levels of humoral and cellular immunity, but also can play a significant role in adjuvant therapy for viral diseases. This is especially relevant in the case of COVID-19. Studies of the direct antiviral effect of these micro-elements testify to its 3 main ways to SARS-Cov-2: I - counteraction to virus replication and its transcription through: (i) their covalent binding to the SH-group of the cysteine of the main protease M(Pro) of the virus;(ii) inhibition of its RNA polymerase activity by zinc;II - preventing the penetration of the virus into cells due to blocking SH-groups of protein disulfide isomerase (RDI) of the protein of its spikes (peplomers);III - decreasing the adsorption capacity of the virus due to the blocking of the electrostatic interaction of SARS-CoV-2 peplomers and angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE-2) in ultra-low, uncharacteristic oxidation states (Zn+1and Se-2). The intensity of the antiviral action of these trace elements may depend on their chemical form. It was found that zinc citrate (a five-membered complex of zinc with citric acid) and monoselenium citric acid obtained with the help of nanotechnology have a greater intensity of action and higher chemical purity. Taking into account the immunostimulating and direct antiviral effect of zinc and selenium, their use in the form of pharmaceuticals and dietary supplements should be considered as adjunctive therapy for SARS-CoV-2 in patients, or as a preventive strategy for uninfected people from risk groups during the spread of COVID-19.Copyright © Publisher PH <<Akademperiodyka>> of the NAS of Ukraine, 2023.

Finding innovation opportunities in SMEs through futures and foresight learning: an action learning approach

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have been particularly challenged by the Covid pandemic, the climate crisis, war and political tensions including the fuel price crisis. Strategic responses to crisis including cost-cutting as retrenchment in the short run, debt financing to preserve the status quo and exit. However, perhaps the most positive is to innovate for renewal. The paper considers how working with an approach to futures and foresight learning, three different SMEs during the Covid pandemic and beyond formed action learning groups and were able to find future opportunities from which innovation ideas for action in the present could be undertaken. The paper considers the meaning of innovation including what Revans saw as an 'Innovation Paradox' as a gap between invention and innovation. In SMEs, the importance of informal innovation and an innovation orientation are identified. The meaning futures and foresight learning is considered and the focus on the identification of new opportunities for products and services, delivered by a process of action learning. Findings from three SMEs are presented from meetings that took place during 2021 to 2022, when Covid restrictions were partly in place. They show how each programme begins with opportunity questions for the future which then lead to ideas after a consideration of trends and patterns. Further methods of futures thinking are presented which allow further ideas to be developed for innovation. In each case, ideas are selected for business planning after approval. Discussion of the findings considers the importance of futures and foresight learning combined with action learning for SMEs to become more strategic, future-oriented and creative in seeking opportunities for innovation.

Core social motives explain responses to collective action issues

Managing collective action issues such as pandemics and climate change requires major social and behavioral change. Dominant approaches to addressing these issues center around information provision and financial incentives to shift behavior, yet, these approaches are rarely effective without integrating insights from psychological research on motivation. By accurately characterizing human motives, social scientists can identify when and why individuals engage, and facilitate behavior change and public engagement. Here, we use the core social motives model to sort social psychological theories into five fundamental social motives: to Belong, Understand, Control, self-Enhance, and Trust. We explain how each motive can improve or worsen collective action issues, and how this framework can be further developed towards a comprehensive social psychological perspective to collective action issues. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)

Helping Language Teachers in Lithuania take their First Action Research Steps During the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Online Strategy

This paper reports on the experiences of the authors teaching action research workshops as professional development for language teachers in Europe during the Covid-19 pandemic. It describes work carried out for Action Research Communities for Language Teachers, which is funded under the Training and Consultancies programme of the European Centre for Modern Languages of the Council of Europe as part of its aim to promote quality language education in Europe. The paper focuses on the necessary pivot from face-to-face to online action research workshops and project development in a difficult global context for a group of teachers in Lithuania. It outlines the challenges experienced by the authors and teacher participants, the lessons learned in online teaching of action research, and the positive outcomes for language teachers in setting out on their action research journeys. The paper contributes to the literature on action research in language education and professional development during Covid-19.

The New Constitutional Process of the Protection Action in Virtual Modality for the Fundamental Right to Health Protection in Times of COVID – 19

This research article is the product of the research study called "The fundamental right to health effectiveness in the virtual constitutional process context in times of COVID-19 in Colombia”, whose first objective is to recognize the new constitutional process of the protection action under the virtual modality for the fundamental right to health protection. Thus, this article will describe the advances of this research which seeks to recognize the characteristics of this new constitutional process for the fundamental right to health protection, created by the Agreements issued by the Superior Council of the Judicature. This research was developed under a qualitative approach and a hermeneutical method that sought to comprehensively understand the meaning of the writings related to the subject while preserving their uniqueness, through analysis matrixes that allow to decompose the texts to understand them. As partial results, it can be observed that the new "constitutional process of virtual protection action” represents flexibility in a context of ductility where adaptation mediated by ICTs has allowed the assurance of fundamental rights through the non-suspension of terms of protection actions, to file the action by email, prevalence of the fundamental right to life, health, and liberty, among others. © 2022, Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana. All rights reserved.

Socioscientific Issues and COVID-19: Responding to Curriculum Reform through Action Research

This collaborative action research project documents the exploration and student learning outcomes of COVID-19 socioscientific issue-based lessons. Analysis of student interviews, surveys, and work, combined with classroom observations, revealed that COVID-19 socioscientific issue-based lessons improved students' conceptual understanding of the science behind pandemic control measures, increased their feelings of personal responsibility in responding to COVID-19, and broadened their perspectives on the impacts of COVID-19 on diverse populations. The framework used to design the lesson series—Three Visions of Scientific Literacy—facilitated the authors' response to curriculum reform. Future use of the framework and implications for socioscientific issue-based teaching are discussed.

The ‘bright' side of innovation management for international new ventures

All businesses are finding it difficult to figure out how to enhance the environment and society. Following the co-generation of social, ethical, and corporate aims, new sustainable inventions have evolved since the COVID-19 pandemic event, similar to new solutions into a workable, viable, and ethical business. The positive and negative aspects of inventions are a topic of discussion among innovation management academics. In particular, how innovation may be more sustainable even when job inequities caused by automation have sparked a feeling of the importance of upholding human rights. Despite that, the innovation management literature is still far from being pedantic in studying automation and human rights towards sustainable innovations in the context of international new ventures (INVs). The article challenges a pessimistic view of innovations by examining automation and human rights for 3000 INVs through the perspective of the micro-foundations. Multiple linear regression analysis is used to evaluate hypotheses, demonstrating how social entrepreneurship can play a constructive mediating role in upholding human rights and promoting automation. This demonstrates the necessity for additional research on a business's individual level to create social breakthroughs. The study encourages policymakers and the government to support sustainable innovations by utilizing technology to boost job quality, uphold human rights, and foster global entrepreneurship.

The entanglements of the law, digital technologies and domestic violence in Seattle

This paper draws on a community-based participatory action research project located in Seattle - before and during the COVID-19 pandemic - to examine the unanticipated impact that the pandemic has had on reducing barriers for survivors of domestic violence seeking protection through the legal system. We draw on interviews with survivors and victim advocates, along with autoethnographic participant observation during Domestic Violence Protection Order (DVPO) hearings, to trace survivors' experiences navigating the DVPO process before and after its transition from an analogue to digital system. We situate this research at the intersection of legal and digital geographic scholarship to analyze how the law and digital technologies reinforce the spatial operation of power and exclusion, while they simultaneously provide emancipatory potential for women's experiences of security, legal subjectivity and emotional personhood. By focusing on how the courts' transition to a digital system affects the emotional personhood and legal subjectivity of domestic violence survivors, this paper advances feminist calls within legal and digital geographies scholarship that encourage more sustained engagement with feminist thought to understand the varied effects of the law and digital technologies – respectively – on gendered bodies.

Harnessing the Affordances of Action Researchers to Address the Challenges of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Educational Leaders take Action Research Online

The unique affordances of Action Research, including flexibility, playfulness, accessibility, and a focus on practical problem solving provided crucial strategies for generating knowledge and developing solutions to the challenges created by the Covid-19 pandemic. The move to online research settings, in particular, required action researchers to find ways to adapt existing research methods and to devise new approaches. This article describes the work of a group of doctoral students in an Educational Leadership program and their instructor in carrying out action research methods in both synchronous and asynchronous online settings.If the months of the pandemic have taught us nothing else, it is that flexibility and willingness to innovate, which are central to action research, are valuable assets in times of uncertainty. The unique affordances of Action Research include creativity, playfulness, accessibility to multiple participants and audiences, transferability of findings, and a focus on the generation of knowledge designed to be pragmatic and problem-focused. These qualities can be harnessed to address the multiple challenges we have encountered during the pandemic including health equity and access, poverty and unemployment, and the interruption of education for vulnerable student populations. They also offer us hope that action research can continue to contribute to addressing the challenges we are sure to face in the future.As students in an educational leadership doctoral program, we focus on examining problems of practice in our schools and districts through action research. As we adapted to online learning in our own schools, we were able to bring these skills to bear in our doctoral studies by developing strategies for conducting these action research methods in both synchronous and asynchronous online settings. This paper describes some of the approaches we developed in the hope that this will enable other action researchers to implement these methods in their own schools, organizations, and communities. The specific action research methods described in this paper are Future Creating Workshops, Citizens' Juries, World Café, Nominal Group Technique, and Digital Storytelling.